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Tournaments: ROI calculation and estimation of its relevance
If your are a regular player of tournament/SNGs (Sit'N'Gos), it is fundamental that you know your ROI (Return On Investment). The ROI is the estimation of your average win rate on any tournament. It is calculated as the sum of all prizes won on every tournament played, less the sum of all buy ins and fees, and you divide by the sum of all buy ins and fees. For instance, say you played 3 10+1 tournaments. Your finished 1st one time and received 50$. 2 times you finished out the money. Then your ROI is [(50+0+0)-(11+11+11)]/[11+11+11]=17/33=52%. This means that, each time you enter a 10+1 SNG, you win an average 52% of all registration fees (buy in + fee). Here that gives you an expected net win of 0.52x11=5.72$. Of course, these 3 touneys are not enough to make the estimation of your ROI significant. So i added a calculation of the relevance of your "observed" ROI. After n tourneys, the calculator will give you an interval of confidence for your "real" ROI. As you will see, you need to play hundreds of identical tourneys so that your "observed" ROI be significant (for instance to be sure that your positive "observed" ROI really means you are a long run winner). With only 3 touneys, you could be a long run loser even with this outstanding 52% ROI. In practice, the form can be used only for 10 and 20 players SNGs, as it supposes that only the 4 first places get paid. If you'd like the calculator to accept tourneys with more than 4 places paid, email me, i'll modify it. |